Tuesday, Wednesday, break my heart

"Ron Paul? Really?"

I voted this morning, the first time in a long while when I voted and felt genuinely good about it. I voted for Barack Obama, and then asked one of the poll workers for an "I voted" sticker, which my polling location didn't have this year. How can I expect to flaunt my patriotism and civic pride if I don't have a sticker?

It's a busy day -- somewhere between 23 and 256 states are voting in primaries and caucuses for President today. Now, I won't break down every state because even I don't have that kind of time (yes I do), but here are some general thoughts.

Californication
Watch for Mitt to surprise some people and win California. McCain will win in most other places, and pad his lead in delegates, and Romney should stick around for at least the next month on the outside chance that McCain dies of old age.

Some weird polls coming out of California on the Democratic side have Hillary leading by close to ten and Obama leading by close to ten - it's probably closer to somewhere in the middle which is good news for Barack because of the proportional voting, a Hillary victory by a bunch of points won't be the delegate blowout. If he wins in California, well, even though the delegate victory won't be big, it will be a huge hit to Hillary.

Connecticut and Colorado
States that could go either way on the Democratic side. Barack has no business competing in Hillary's backyard, but for some reason he is, and that could similarly be a big win for him.

Margins
Barack is running up the score in Illinois, and should have the most decisive victory of Super Tuesday in his home state. Hillary is beating him by half that margin in New York. If the votes fall in the right places -- Barack making it even in some black districts in New York in which Hillary has establishment support, he could make it a delegate contest in places where Hillary shouldn't have to defend.

Ok, I lied, here are my predictions (for democrats) state by state:

Alabama - Clinton
Alaska - Obama
Arizona - Clinton
Arkansas - Clinton
California - Obama
Colorado - Clinton
Connecticut - Obama
Delaware - Clinton
Georgia - Obama
Idaho - Obama
Illinois - Obama
Kansas - Clinton
Massachusetts - Clinton
Minnesota - Clinton
Missouri - Obama
New Jersey - Clinton
New Mexico - Clinton
New York - Clinton
North Dakota - Obama
Oklahoma - Clinton
Tennessee - Clinton
Utah - Obama