You overdid it holmes, you in the danger zone

For those of you not watching or reading the news this week, I'll give you a rundown:

- Iran fopnapped 15 British sailors who were supposedly in Iranian waters
- Sailors are safe and healthy, in cigarette and Earl Gray withdrawal
- Tony Blair is pissed
- Anna Nicole Smith overdosed

This is really an incredibly story, because if this happened five years ago, George Bush would be displaying President Ahmadinejad's head on a platter at the White House. Today? We just don't have the mojo. Iran knows that Britain and the US don't have the capabilities very well invade or take truly drastic measures, so it might as well take the opportunity to flex nuts, get some press, fire up the hardliners, and tweek Blair and Bush.

So, this crisis will go on for a week, much like the Chinese showdown in 2001, and eventually result in the British getting their soldiers back, safe and sound, because even Mahmoud is not stupid enough to kill them. Perfect timing for the Iranians, though; the UN decides on sanctions just as this whole affair is shaking out, and they get to say to the world that they still hold some power.

However, Mahmoud could be horribly wrong and the US and Britain could launch strikes on Tehran, ultimately invade and then plunge Iran into a religious and cultural civil war, the likes of which we have not seen in the Middle East since.... March 19, 2003. But what are the odds of that?