Carry me Ohio (And Texas. Texas, too)
It's decision day, or d day, or, at least according to Drudge:
So does he mean Clinton Day, or...
Four states vote today: Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, and Texas, twice. According to most of the media and both the Clinton and Obama campaigns, tonight is up for grabs. Nobody seems to have any idea of what's going to happen.
Rhode Island
Whites white whitey whitey mcwhite whites. Clinton wins.
Vermont
Whites white whitey whitey mcwhite but they're retired college professors and hippies and students who are high so Obama wins.
Ohio
Ohio is one of those states, like Wisconsin, that should be built for a Clinton victory. Middle and working class voters, closed mills, cities in economic distress, etc... Obama was able to run up the numbers in the college towns to win Wisconsin; it looks like he never had a shot at that in Ohio. Even when Clinton was at her lowest nationally, Ohio still held out for her. Interesting.
It's snowing in Ohio today. Like I wrote before Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan, conventional wisdom is that snow helps the favorite, as the die hards will be the ones to vote. However, Clinton's support is with older people, who as we know are afraid of snow. So that could help Obama.
My gut says she wins -- the momentum has swung back her way. With the exception of a few outliers, she has been ahead in almost every poll for the last month, and the margin has started to increase.
Texas
Si se Puede! Actually, no. I don't have much insight here. I just don't see it. Latinos, momentum back in her direction, and last week's ads; I feel like she's got her game face on now.
A win here coupled with Ohio especially after how low expectations have been set gives her reason to fight on to another day where she will still not catch Obama delegate-wise.
So she should win 3 out of 4, and with the way her spin has been working, set this up as another comeback, New Hampshire 92 and New Hampshire 08 style, and press on. And, depending on how the delegates shake out, it is a comeback and she will go forward.
Barack's delegate lead isn't that great, under 200, and the reality is that neither of them can win the nomination before the convention if the other one remains in the race, so if its essentially tied there is no way she drops out.
I loathe her.
So does he mean Clinton Day, or...Four states vote today: Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, and Texas, twice. According to most of the media and both the Clinton and Obama campaigns, tonight is up for grabs. Nobody seems to have any idea of what's going to happen.
Rhode Island
Whites white whitey whitey mcwhite whites. Clinton wins.
Vermont
Whites white whitey whitey mcwhite but they're retired college professors and hippies and students who are high so Obama wins.
Ohio
Ohio is one of those states, like Wisconsin, that should be built for a Clinton victory. Middle and working class voters, closed mills, cities in economic distress, etc... Obama was able to run up the numbers in the college towns to win Wisconsin; it looks like he never had a shot at that in Ohio. Even when Clinton was at her lowest nationally, Ohio still held out for her. Interesting.
It's snowing in Ohio today. Like I wrote before Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan, conventional wisdom is that snow helps the favorite, as the die hards will be the ones to vote. However, Clinton's support is with older people, who as we know are afraid of snow. So that could help Obama.
My gut says she wins -- the momentum has swung back her way. With the exception of a few outliers, she has been ahead in almost every poll for the last month, and the margin has started to increase.
Texas
Si se Puede! Actually, no. I don't have much insight here. I just don't see it. Latinos, momentum back in her direction, and last week's ads; I feel like she's got her game face on now.
A win here coupled with Ohio especially after how low expectations have been set gives her reason to fight on to another day where she will still not catch Obama delegate-wise.
So she should win 3 out of 4, and with the way her spin has been working, set this up as another comeback, New Hampshire 92 and New Hampshire 08 style, and press on. And, depending on how the delegates shake out, it is a comeback and she will go forward.
Barack's delegate lead isn't that great, under 200, and the reality is that neither of them can win the nomination before the convention if the other one remains in the race, so if its essentially tied there is no way she drops out.
I loathe her.
posted by quint at 1:50 PM
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