It's a turn down day

I'm kind of still in shock from yesterday's results. I know, as a member of the media (ha!) I should at least try to be impartial, but that is nearly impossible with Barack Obama. It would have put Hillary's campaign into a total tailspin and would have meant guaranteed wins in Nevada and South Carolina. Now, it's anyone's game again.

I'll write more when my heart starts beating again as the week goes on, but despite Obama's dominating win in Iowa and extremely close finish in New Hampshire, I am deathly afraid of his chances. He got the endorsement of the Culinary Union and SEIU in Nevada, which is supposedly a big get but the unions did little for Dr. Dean, John Edwards, or Chris Dodd. Ha. Chris Dodd.

My big fear is a demographic one -- Barack did just what Bradley and Dean tried to do in 2000 and 2004; he appealed to the liberal base and with it the youth vote. But he didn't dominate those places, Durham in particular. Hillary won Manchester and Nashua going away, places which not only had the votes but the blue collar workers that she appeals to.

Nevada and South Carolina and interesting, demographically. South Carolina is Like New Hampshire and Iowa, it have a heavy rural tint, with the exception of a few big cities. Nevada seems very unpredictable; a constantly growing and changing population. What word can classify a Nevada primary voter? Drunk?

Barack was even with Hillary in the national polls and way ahead in South Carolina -- now with the narrow Clinton victory in New Hampshire, who knows how the polls will go?

Obama does well among the educated, the young, and "elite". The problem is that South Carolina and Nevada don't really strike me as being heavy in those particular demographics. However, all along Obama's South Carolina question has been about whether or not the black voters will come out for him. "Conventional wisdom" is that black voters won't choose a black candidate only because he's black unless they think he can win. With a big win in Iowa, a close second in New Hampshire, and a hopeful win in Nevada, maybe the black voters will stick.

On the other hand, Hillary has a seeming ironclad grip on the party regulars; in New Hampshire she had the Speaker of the House, the Senate President, etc... in Iowa she had Vilsack. In South Carolina and Nevada, her grip seems weaker, but the less affluent and less educated voters will probably go with what they know, and that's the Clinton name. I'm babbling.

Oh, El Gobernador Gordo dropped out of the race and John "I'm a (expletive) weasel" Edwards is hanging around until the convention, I'm assuming to get a free trip to Denver?

A Republican half-assed update tomorrow, but in fun news, someone found my blog in a very funny way yesterday: