Thursday, January 31, 2008

Former weightifter endorses McCain


AP - LOS ANGELES - The Presidential campaign of Senator John McCain (R-AZ) received a crucial boost today with the endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger, former internationally renowned bodybuilder and subject of the 1977 film, Pumping Iron.

Schwarzenegger, a 7-time Mr. Olympian and 5-time Mr. Universe, endorsed Senator McCain in Los Angeles, where McCain was visiting in advance of Tuesday's California primary. The Austrian-born former Mr. Junior Europe and Mr. Europe said McCain gained his support because of the Senator's position on illegal immigration and his plans for tax cuts.

"As you might imagine from accent, I am an immigrant and I'm also a multimillionaire so John McCain speaks to all of my issues," Schwarzenegger, who was nicknamed the "Austrian Oak", said at a joint appearance with McCain, adding, "Political experience is by far the most important issue for me when voting in an election."

Schwarzenegger's endorsement capped off a successful week for McCain, who, after winning the Florida primary on Tuesday, also picked up the endorsement of former Saturday Night Live guest host Rudy Giuliani.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Mill mill mill mill mill


Once again John Edwards has made the courageous choice to spare the nation from his mispronunciation of the word "why". He will drop out of the race today, in New Orleans, and then spend the next few months repeating the phrase "Attorney General John Edwards" in front of a mirror.

Old man wins Florida Republican primary, gazes at great-great grandchildren

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Awwww....


The dream has ended. The promise of tomorrow will have to wait. Our national destiny will not be fulfilled. Ferretface V. 911 is out. He will endorse Old Man River tomorrow in California.

Giuliani called his campaign "uplifting" and "positive". Ha.

So, what's next for 911? He's waying his options, trying to figure out the best way to remain in a role of prominence while continuing to scare the hell out of the American people and dredge up terrible memories. Best guess? Either game show host or Vice President.

As an aside, this makes me very, very happy.

The big (expletive) of the South

Florida voters are coming out in droves today, leaving their neighborhood strip clubs, strip malls, Wal Marts, IHOP's, biker bars, amusement parks, Cuban delis, football stadiums, pawn shops, resorts, minor league training camps, chinese buffets, KKK meetings, gun stores, golf courses, dance clubs, temples, check cashing parlors, swamps, early bird specials, and homeless shelters to pick their favorite. And unlike 2000, this time their votes will count. Except of course the democrats because their votes won't count.

So, without further adieu (ado), my predictions.

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rudy Giuliani
4. Mike Huckabee

John McCain lucked out this weekend with the surprising and yet not surprising endorsement from political ally Governor Charlie Crist, who stepped out of his tanning booth, and then out of his hair salon, to rally with McCain. Senator Mel Martinez, the one immigrant that the Republicans actually like, also went with McCain.

Romney and McCain had been neck and neck for the last week, which is surprising following South Carolina. But apparently Mitt is the only actual Republican in the race, which comes as a big shock to me and the entire Romney family -- but he's still fighting for 1st. I think the two endorsements but two statewide elected officials, as well as the Sly Stallone endorsement from last week, give it to McCain. This will end Rudy Giuliani's quixotic and offensive campaign for the White House, thank God. Here's a preview of tomorrow's concession speech:

"We'll always have 9/11."

Monday, January 28, 2008

The State of the Union

I was all prepared to write my third live blog of tonight's State of the Union. I cleared my schedule, ate my dinner, and sat down with my laptop in front of my television. Then I thought about what I read today on CNN's website (as well as the fact that last year's live blog was terrible). Here was the headline:


Wow. Exciting.

But, alas, of course I watched the speech. I love the State of the Union. I love watching Congressman fall over each other to shake the hand of the President, or to get his signature. I love the standing ovations and the snubs. I love Michael Chertoff. I love the suits (Charlie Rangel) and the pantsuits (Sheila-Jackson Lee). I love Carlos Guitteriez's moustache. I love when Dick Cheney smiles. I love the candids (Teddy Kennedy) and the posing (Hillary Clinton). I love the First Lady and her guests. I love when the camera catches Congressmen sleeping (John Dingell). I love that the President still can't pronounce nuclear. I love the seating chart. I love the cardboard cutout Supreme Court Justices. I love that the President pronounces the word as POH-tential. I love John Lewis. I love Ted Kennedy. I love Barack Obama.

I love when the President lies. I love when the President panders. I love when the President sends coded messages to Christian conservatives. I love when the President misrepresents his record. I love when the President cherrypicks from the past seven years. I love when the President makes me ashamed.

I love democracy. I love our democracy. I love our history. I love our tradition. I love our country. And I love that no matter what this President has done to this country, what lies he has told, what ghastly errors he has made, how many people he has hurt, and how many lives he has ruined, I still tuned in.

Yes, we can


Saturday, was a good day. A huge win for Barack Obama, doubling up Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, 55%-27%. Oh, and that nice young man with the brown hair and fake Southern accent got 18%.

Barack gave what may have been the greatest speech I have ever witnessed on Saturday night, better than his Iowa victory speech, better than his announcement speech last year, and better than his keynote at the DNC in 2004. John Edwards followed that with a 10 minute snoozer, Bill Clinton gave a speech where he talked about himself and his Presidential library, and Hillary gave a full-on stump speech and town hall meeting in Tennessee. Like the politically deft person she is, she ignored South Carolina and went on to Super Duper Mega Monster Tuesday.

Last week I was nearly convinced of an ultimate Hillary win, not in South Carolina but the nomination. I figured that Barack would win in South Carolina, by 10 points or so then head to next week outmatched. But such a decisive blowout, followed up by an incredible editorial in the Times by Caroline Kennedy comparing Obama to JFK, and then by the endorsement of Ted Kennedy today... I don't care if its false but I have hope.

Friday, January 25, 2008

I personally believe


The democrats head to South Carolina tomorrow, the land where John Edwards was born, John McCain was humiliated, and Hillary Clinton turned her campaign from nasty to racist. Man, do I feel good about politics!

Here's my predictions:

1) Barack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) John Edwards

Watch for what could make for an interesting upset -- John Edwards is coming close to Hillary in the most recent polls -- he could squeeze out a second place finish if his particular base of hairdressers, trial attorneys, and sons of mill workers turns out tomorrow....

The drifter did escape

"My website does not follow convential website naming guidelines!"

Our long national nightmare is over... Dennis Kucinich (D-the land of make believe) is going back to the hobbit hole/Ed Grimley lookalike contest/Vulcan colony/Midwestern city where he came from. That's right, Dennis the Menace has dropped out of the Presidential race. I guess he'll have to settle on having sex with his extremely hot British wife. Wait, why am I making fun of this guy?

Kucinich said he is dropping out to spend more time having sex with his extremely hot British wife. Wait, no, he is dropping out because he wants to focus on having sex with his extremely hot British wife. Wait... What is wrong with me today? He is dropping out because he is facing three primary challengers who have accused him of ignoring his district while running for President. Personally, I think the only thing he ignored during his run for President was reason, reality, logic, rationality, and the fact that he is not eligible to run for President because he wasn't born on the planet Earth, but hatched from an egg somewhere in the Ursa Minor system.

Extremely hot British wife.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Hmm...

Via CNN's unintentionally funny headline generator, or CNNUFHG


If this isn't a rallying cry for Zombie Reagan, I don't know what is.

The Final Countdown

The Republicans gather in Florida tonight for what will most likely be the last time these 5 good friends get together until Their 10 year reunion in 2018 (McCain will be 104). Rudy goes into the debate in full desperation mode, Huckabee goes in completely broke, Ron Paul goes in still crazy and slightly more racist, Romney goes in with a full head of steam after getting his microchips reinstalled, and John McCain goes in with a hop in his step after a key endorsement from Sly Stallone.


That's right, Sly Stallone. The only person involved in this race who looks older than John McCain.

In terms of celebrity endorsements, now we've got:

- Huckabee: Chuck Norris, Ted Nugent, Chuck Norris' right fist, Chuck Norris' beard
- McCain: Sly Stallone, Curt Schilling, Wilford Brimley (not a joke)
- Giuliani: His current mistress, Tom Selleck, Bernie Kerik's mistress, Adam Sandler
- Romney: Tagg Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney, Matt Romney, Craig Romney
- Ron Paul: Ann Romney

There are some expectations of “fireworks”, “mudslinging”, and “sharp elbows”, and that’s just the postgame show with Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough. The recent Times article shed a little light on the race; apparently all the other candidates hate Mitt because he’s rich and his family is part of an Aryan super-race and he will say whatever it takes to get elected. Rudy is in a last ditch effort to remind Republican voters that he is running for President, so expect him to go nasty (AKA go Giuliani) on McCain and Romney, who are pretty much co-frontrunners right now. Huckabee is just excited to be in a location that he doesn’t have to spend any campaign funds on, and he will go after Romney very aggressively. McCain will do the same, and then smile awkwardly. Ron Paul will remind us all to treasure our mental health.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

When I'm through with you, you'll learn to keep your business straight

"Well, Hillary, I... Just shut up! Shut the fuck up!"

The old band got back together last night for mano-a-womano-a-John Edwards debate, moderated by Wolf Blitzer's beard and surprisingly hot Suzanne Malveaux. Hillary and Barack really got into this time, firing personal attacks at each other over Ronald Reagan, WalMart, and sleazy slumlords. Oh, that nice young man from North Carolina was there.

The debate started on the issues but quickly delved into Hillary going after Barack for praising Reagan (he did not) and complimenting the ideas of the Republican Party (he did not). Barack accused Hillary and her unemployed husband of distorting his record (they did). Edwards accused both of them of bickering with each other (they did) and then accused the American public of wholeheartedly rejecting his candidacy (they did). All three candidates accused Wolf Blitzer of being a pulseless windbag (he is), and of asking third grade level questions (he did).

Aside from the conscienceless political sniping, which went from forced to robotic to nasty to forced, there were some significant policy discussions -- in fact just one, on health care. Barack attacked Hillary for going at health care reform the wrong way in the early 90's, and then he elaborated in the vaguest way humanly possible that he wanted to "bring people together". Hillary disagreed and said that the only way to succeed would be to drive people apart and then called Barack a "house (expletive)".

And, keeping with CNN's crack journalistic standards, the following hysterical exchange happened, quotes are approximate:

CNN hack #1: "Senator Obama, was Bill Clinton the first black President?"
Barack Obama: "Affinity from blacks... from the South... I'd have to check out his dance moves among other things to determine if he is actually a brother."
Hillary: "That can be arranged."

Of course by "among other things" Barack meant "dick size" and by "that can be arranged" Hillary meant "he's already pantsless somewhere so it shouldn't be a problem."

Friday, January 18, 2008

Friday News Roundup (and predictions)

It's been a while (July) since I've written my famed Friday News Roundup, once a hilarious staple of this space. Why? Because it started to suck. Bad. But, while reading the news this morning, I don't know, I felt compelled.


This story continues to bother me. First of all, if you go to the zoo and you're not under the age of 12 or chaperoning children under the age of 12, isn't it a given that you'll be high or drunk? We're talking about a place where animals are kept in captivity and don't do anything interesting -- alcohol and marijuana are the only things that will allay boredom and pangs of morality.

But the creme de la creme of all of this is that police, the city of San Francisco, and the zoo continue to shift blame on these guys for getting eaten by a tiger -- when, according to the article, the wall enclosing Tatiana the Tiger was 4 feet lower than the suggested height minimum.

These guys didn't jump into the tiger cage. They didn't get a papercut and swim with sharks. They didn't poke Gentle Ben with a stick. They did what a lot of people do when they go to a zoo, which is why all zoos should be closed -- they taunted a gigantic dangerous animal that shouldn't be cohabitating with humans. And the zoo screwed up because their wall wasn't high enough and somebody got eaten. But that's ok because they were drunk and high and yelling at the tiger.

- Mitt Romney has shifted strategies and is now running for sales manager of a Staples

- Osama Bin Laden's 26 year old son, who wears dreadlocks, a leather jacket, and a goatee, is planning a 300 hundred mile horse race (with his 52 year old wife) to promote peace between the West and Al Queda. I'll just let that one sit.

- And finally, the Nevada caucuses in both parties are being held tomorrow, as is the South Carolina primary on the Republican side. Nevada is a big contest for the Democrats, as it has been quiet since Iowa and the campaigns have invested alot into the state. The Republicans are almost exclusively focused on South Carolina. Now, the predictions.

Nevada Dems

1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Obama got the big endorsements from SEIU and the Culinary workers, but following the pattern, Hillary Clinton is still dominating the big cities while Barack is doing better in rural areas; She's leading in Vegas and he is leading everywhere else. An untested electorate means anything could happen, including an Edwards win, but despite Obama's organization, I feel like the Clinton name will win out. An Obama win here would be huge as he is already leading in South Carolina.


Nevada Republicans

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee


South Carolina

1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

The big test for Huckabee -- can he win another primary? And can he win where he should? He needs to turn out the Christian base, which explains his fiery comments on gay marriage earlier this week; they need to come out in droves for him. There weren't enough in Michigan or New Hampshire, but there are enough in South Carolina if he can move them. I just don't see it happening.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Here's the story....

Today's Globe has the above feature on the Republican candidates for President, and it provided a hell of a lot of insight. For example, I had no idea that Rudy Giuliani was running for President. Also, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson look like they're appearing on album cover.

Other tidbits about the Republican candidates and Iraq:

1) Ron Paul can't locate Iraq on a map
2) Rudy Giuliani supports the surge so much that he is divorcing it on national television
3) Mike Huckabee believes the war on terror will be won through a combination of prayer, weight loss, bass guitars, hunting, accepting inappropriate gifts from contributors, running marathons, raising children who kill dogs, and roundhouse kicks.
4) John McCain surprisingly has no opinion on the Iraq war.

In other news, Mitt Romney used the memory of his father's civil rights march with Abraham Lincoln to secure his first major victory of the primary season, beating John McCain in Michigan and even further muddling the Republican field. Polls now show John McCain with a comfortable lead nationally as well as in South Carolina, where the Republicans head on Saturday.

Mike Huckabee needs a win here. Real bad. Like if he doesn't win he's gaining that 100 pounds back bad. After a big win Iowa, he's placed in the teens (and third place) in New Hampshire and Michigan, two places without such a commanding evangelical base. South Carolina is his wheelhouse -- it went for Bush in 2000 after a racist primary campaign that destroyed John McCain. Who other than Mike Huckabee could possibly benefit from racist right wing crazies? Oh, right, all of the candidates.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of elderly Vermont Senator Pat Leahy, as well as a court ruling that allowed casinos to hold individual caucuses during the Nevada caucus on Saturday. Bill Clinton said this was unfair, then called Barack Obama an Uncle Tom.

Stay tuned tomorrow for Nevada and South Carolina predictions.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

News News News

So I'm browsing CNN today, on a break from kind of doing work and not doing work, looking for some information on the Michigan primary and OH MY GOD WHAT IS THAT?
You would think it would have been possible, even desirable, for CNN to post a picture of a cloned pig that, I don't know, didn't have shit all over its face or appear to be in some sort of pig prison? If ham wasn't delicious, I would become a vegitarian based upon this photo alone.

Michigan seems like a dream to me now


It's decision day in the.... Wolverine state? I don't know. Anyway, Mitt Romney is holding on by a thread as the hometown candidate in a place where everyone has fond memories of his nutty father and his peace marches with Frederick Douglas.

Polls show Mitt tied with John McCain (who won Michigan in 2000), and Chuck Norris a not so distant third. McCain is still riding high after his comatose yet 5 point victory in New Hampshire, and Mitt Romney is riding high after going a whole 6 days without losing a primary.

As I mentioned last week, if Mitt loses here, it's over for him and his excessively attractive family. Much like Fruity Giuliani in Florida and Fred Thompson in South Carolina, Mitt is making his stand in Michigan, where people have a vague recollection of him and no idea what a terrible Governor he was. Good luck!

Last week I was pretty convinced of a McCain victory, a knockout punch to set up a de facto 1 on 1 vs. Huckabee as Thompson and Giuliani lost consecutive weeks, but it's snowing in Michigan today. That could mean a lot of things, but the general consensus is that bad weather means only die hards come out, and while I shiver to think of anyone who might be a die hard for Mitt Romney, his support in Michigan has been strong while McCain's has only really grown since his victory in New Hampshire last week. Which means, McCain's supporters won't come out in droves, but Romney's (and Huckabee's) might. Huckabee could pull off a miracle and win second.

Predictions

1) Mitt Romney
2) John McCain
3) Mike Huckabee
4) Fred Thompson
5) Zombie Reagan

Monday, January 14, 2008

Thievin'

So I usually don't pull directly from another blog, but while browsing Wonkette today, I stumbled across a link to a very bizarre page on PETA's website.

http://www.peta.org/feat/greenhouse/index.asp

The theme is a Presidential campaign involving different food items, with horrendous puns mixed in with the current crop (haha, I can do it too!) of Presidential candidates; Broccoli Obama, Celery Clinton, John Breadwards, Fruity Giuliani, etc...

It's a no brainer that Fruity Giuliani is the funniest pun, if only because Rudy likes the gays and dressing like a woman, but the funniest picture is a dogfight...


Normally I would have a field day with something like this, but today I feel like George Costanza when he can't come up with a lie to tell Peterman to avoid having dinner with him -- I should be making hilarious food puns, but I'm all tapped out. Could I have lost it?

Ok, Howard Bean, Terry McCauliflower, Trent Latkes, James Carveal, David Gherkin, John Berry.

Tomorrow I'll be all fired up with Michigan GOP predictions and Hillary Clinton's most recent campaign stop where a supporter called Barack Obama a crackhead.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Is this place at your command?

The Republicans had another debate on Thursday, this time hosted by, surprise surprise, FoxNews, and anchored by noted douchebags Britt Hume, Chris Wallace, Human lollipop Carl Cameron, and noted Foxnews minority Wendell Goler. It was a hoot!

Highlights include:

- Britt Hume inexplicably, and angrily, asking if the captain of a US destroyer should have sunk the Iranian speedboats that it encountered in the Strait of Hormuz. When no one took the bait, he got even angrier and John McCain called him on it. That was fun.

- Mitt Romney making fun of Ron Paul twice

- Fred Thompson levelling 8 attacks at Mike Huckabee in 90 seconds

- Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan

This is exciting. The races in both parties are so up in the air, but more so on the Republican side because 3 or 4 candidates could conceivebly be nominated: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Zombie Reagan.

Richie like Lionel

"That's an excellent question. I would say... Reverse cowgirl."

For the one time frontrunner and favorite of non evangelical Republicans, this has not been a good two weeks. Chuck Norris beats him in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire, and he's left pulling out all of the stops in Michigan. He's gone dark (not really dark, he's a Republican) in South Carolina and Florida, and is devoting all his ads to his home state, where his dad was Governor and once marched with Harriet Tubman through the streets of Flint.

McCain was leading in Michigan before New Hampshire -- with a bump from the win there I don't see how Romney can beat him. If McCain wins, despite Romney's Olympian references to winning "a gold and two silvers" I think the race is over for him. If he can pull out a win, then McCain takes a bit of a lump and... I have no idea what I'm talking about. The point is, if Romney loses, the race is over for him. He can go back to.... well he's not welcome here in Massachusetts so I guess he can go back Utah.


'Cause my country, is all I know

"I can't believe I'm sharing the stage with these guys."

Despite his coma inducing victory speech on Tuesday night, John McCain is riding high right now, taking the lead in some national polls, the lead in South Carolina, in Michigan, and somewhat shockingly, is neck and neck with Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire. Excellent.

McCain's got to feel optimistic -- a win in Michigan gives him a bump into South Carolina which is 5 days away. He has to be the frontrunner right now. Watching him in the debate the other day made me long for the McCain from 2000 though; the one who was angrier but less of a dick. Is that possible? This time around he seems more subdued but a lot more into himself. Also watching him try to smile at one of his opponents or questioners when he really wants to shoot them is about as awkward as watching John Kerry hug Barack Obama.


False God, I scuff


"I'm sick of negative politics. By the way, John McCain had sex with Fred Thompson."

Chuck Norris is in a bit of limbo right now. He seemed to have pretty good crowd support in South Carolina on Thursday, although there was also a lot of applause when the undead Fred Thompson attacked him, so I don't know what to think about his chances. Supposedly he's making a move in Michigan, but I can't believe that with McCain and Romney running hard there he will have any shot at a weird upset -- once again he should take third, trumpet that, and move on down the line to South Carolina.

Here it gets tricky -- McCain now leads by a few points. Mitt's gone off the air. Giuliani is Giuliani. But Fred Thompson, fresh off a few feisty debates, is making his last stand (and first stand) for that matter, in South Carolina. He could siphon off some ultra conservatives that don't like McCain, and it was clear from the debate that he is gunning for Huckabee. If McCain wins Michigan, and Thompson is able to knock off Huckabee in South Carolina allowing McCain to win there, then Huckabee will go into Super Tuesday with a few weeks of McCain heavy news cycles. Super Tuesday should be very friendly to the candidate who has name recognition or the candidate who has been able to break through with primary wins -- if Huckabee can't pick up another win before February 5, he's finished.


A graveyard smash

"Brains."

Zombie Reagan has a pretty difficult path to the nomination. He's polling in the single digits in Michigan, but if he can pull off a surprise victory in South Carolina, then his name recognition and his army of the undead should give him a boost going into Super Tuesday. If he can win in places like California, then... well... hide your brains.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

It's a turn down day


I'm kind of still in shock from yesterday's results. I know, as a member of the media (ha!) I should at least try to be impartial, but that is nearly impossible with Barack Obama. It would have put Hillary's campaign into a total tailspin and would have meant guaranteed wins in Nevada and South Carolina. Now, it's anyone's game again.

I'll write more when my heart starts beating again as the week goes on, but despite Obama's dominating win in Iowa and extremely close finish in New Hampshire, I am deathly afraid of his chances. He got the endorsement of the Culinary Union and SEIU in Nevada, which is supposedly a big get but the unions did little for Dr. Dean, John Edwards, or Chris Dodd. Ha. Chris Dodd.

My big fear is a demographic one -- Barack did just what Bradley and Dean tried to do in 2000 and 2004; he appealed to the liberal base and with it the youth vote. But he didn't dominate those places, Durham in particular. Hillary won Manchester and Nashua going away, places which not only had the votes but the blue collar workers that she appeals to.

Nevada and South Carolina and interesting, demographically. South Carolina is Like New Hampshire and Iowa, it have a heavy rural tint, with the exception of a few big cities. Nevada seems very unpredictable; a constantly growing and changing population. What word can classify a Nevada primary voter? Drunk?

Barack was even with Hillary in the national polls and way ahead in South Carolina -- now with the narrow Clinton victory in New Hampshire, who knows how the polls will go?

Obama does well among the educated, the young, and "elite". The problem is that South Carolina and Nevada don't really strike me as being heavy in those particular demographics. However, all along Obama's South Carolina question has been about whether or not the black voters will come out for him. "Conventional wisdom" is that black voters won't choose a black candidate only because he's black unless they think he can win. With a big win in Iowa, a close second in New Hampshire, and a hopeful win in Nevada, maybe the black voters will stick.

On the other hand, Hillary has a seeming ironclad grip on the party regulars; in New Hampshire she had the Speaker of the House, the Senate President, etc... in Iowa she had Vilsack. In South Carolina and Nevada, her grip seems weaker, but the less affluent and less educated voters will probably go with what they know, and that's the Clinton name. I'm babbling.

Oh, El Gobernador Gordo dropped out of the race and John "I'm a (expletive) weasel" Edwards is hanging around until the convention, I'm assuming to get a free trip to Denver?

A Republican half-assed update tomorrow, but in fun news, someone found my blog in a very funny way yesterday:


Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Wha' happened?




Holy shit. Hillary Clinton wins, beating Barack Obama by a couple of points. Wow. And then she dresses in an outfit from the Sophia Petrillo collection.

And a cyborg John McCain beats Mitt Romney and Chuck Norris.

A lotta nerve


That's nice.

Speaking of sexism, this was a little further down on the front page of Foxnews:

More on the big day later...

Monday, January 07, 2008

The prognosticator of prognosticators


Stay tuned tomorrow for a more in depth primary analysis, but for now, my New Hampshire predictions.


The Republicans (Cobra Kai)

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Chuck Norris
4. Rudy Giuliani

The Democrats (The Good Guys)

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards
4. El Gobernador Gordo (Only because he's the only one left running)


Other predictions: Ohio State beats LSU, Fat guy beats fat woman on The Biggest Loser.

Friday, January 04, 2008

Somewhere in the middle of America

So my predictions were a little off -- i'm not sure what happened. I was all set for Huckabee and have been very high on him for quite a while, but for some reason I thought Mitt's money and his dashing good lucks would save the day. Instead, a hick former Governor of Arkansas who blinks every two seconds and who only has teeth on one side of his mouth won the Iowa Republican caucus. A quick recap.

Like a Cobra, Kabam!*


Barack Obama, who is officially cooler than a polar bear's toenails, oh hell, swoops in and wins the caucus, going away, from John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Both Edwards and Clinton put their game faces on, and talked about their quasi-victories, but Edwards has got to be scared shitless. He camped out in Iowa since the last caucus and he actually went down in his percentage? What? And Hillary. Oh Hillary. She can't make the same excuse as her husband did in 1992 -- she was the establishment candidate. She had the organization, she had the money, she had Tom Vilsack, and she placed third behind one guy who is not legally old enough to run for President (Edwards) and one guy who four years ago was a State Senator.

Thank you, Chuck Norris


A few roundhouse kicks, a couple karate chops, and a few prayers to God paid off and Mike Huckabee won Iowa. Wow. The Christian Conservative came out, and in full force -- 60% went for him. However, Huckabee won only 14% of non evangelicals. So what does that mean? It means either that Romney, Thompson, and McCain had a tight grip on those voters, or even more likely, that Huckabee turns off non evangelical Christians. Wow, what a surprise! Who would a thunk it?

Will Huckabee's appeal grow? Can he attract non evangelical voters? When is the deadline for me to support Huckabee before I go to hell? Who is that hot blonde next to Chuck Norris?

* Special thanks to MC Napkins for the Barack Obama anagram.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

One more night

I’ve felt a little disengaged from this campaign cycle – the primaries came up quickly and I’ve purposely tried to keep my distance for my own sanity as well as the sanity of everyone around me. Also, much like the 2006 campaign, in which the Democrats were only victorious because I was not involved in any campaign in any way, I felt like my heavy involvement (even as a spectator) in this campaign would have resulted in former Senator Mike Gravel becoming the Democratic nominee for President.

That being said, I still have paid a lot of attention (read: done nothing at my job) to this campaign, culminating in a marathon of media ingestion over the last week. So, I will finish my countdown with the thing I love most about primary season.

1. Barack Obama


My love for Obama goes back to the spring of 2004, just after Kerry won the nomination and I was looking for a job. I read an article in the New Yorker chronicling Obama’s recent primary victory, and sent a letter to his campaign asking for a job. Normally, a story like this has a happy ending. The candidate, reading my resume and my letter, is moved by my prose and personally asks me to join his campaign, a la Primary Colors. In my case, I got a letter from the deputy campaign manager telling me that there was no room at the inn.

But my love for Obama didn’t wane, and after his speech at the DNC and the many jokes that my friends and I made on election night in November that Barack Obama would be the only democrat ever elected again, it grew. His name constantly came up regarding national office, and he flashed his teeth, blanched, and waved it off. I finally got to see him speak (in Hackensack, New Jersey) in November of 2005. Just over a year later, he was off.

I was sold, very early on. But then, it seemed that he would be the proverbial flash in the pan, both in rhetoric and reality. He seemed cautious, and oddly non partisan – what kind of democrat was this guy? He seemed to have fully bought into the idea of broad campaigning, and through that broad governing and broad coalition building. While Clinton and Edwards were whacking away at the President (and each other) Barack was certainly doing some of that of his own, but either through political calculation or pure political belief, he was looking past partisanship. A weird way of winning a purely partisan election.

I waffled. I left home and went to Hillary, for nebulous reasons, in retrospect. She seemed more polished, more... ready? But ready to do what? To be President or to look like the President? To lead or to react to the public? I was torn. But, I came back.

He caught fire. Maybe it was the arrival of a candidate who seemed to have it all – the looks, the intelligence, the “gravitas”, the charisma, and the ability to connect to crowds both large and small. He filled in all of the holes that Hillary Clinton and John Edwards left empty. He was young and energetic like Edwards, but more of a heavyweight. He had the intellectual ability of Clinton but was actually liked by people. Plus, he was black.

It’s a tough topic to discuss, Obama’s race. Could he win if he was white? No. Could he run if he was white? No. In no way does his race make him more or less qualified for the presidency, but it does tell a story. Of an intellectual giant who could have done anything he wanted with his life, but he decided to devote himself to his community. To help those that looked like him but didn’t have the gifts that he had. He could tell similar stories – of being called names, of being looked at suspiciously, of always having expectations of himself skewed through a racial prism. Obama’s blackness will not make him a better or worse President, but in many ways, it may make him a better Presidential candidate. He comes from a completely different place than everyone else, he has seen the world (literally and figuratively) differently than nearly anyone who has seriously run for this office before.

I don’t know what any of that means. I know that in my most aware previous Presidential primary (2004) I used complete pragmatism to pick my candidate, the ultimately unsuccessful, flawed, yet talented Wes Clark. Sure, I believed in him and his ability to win and lead, but not like Dean’s supporters did for their candidate. John Kerry won Iowa because voters begrudgingly realized Kerry was their best shot to dethrone President Bush, not because of some deep-seeded belief in John Kerry. So while I had very little appreciation of Dean the candidate, and at the time had a lot of animous towards Dean the movement, when I look at the campaign four years removed, I envy the devotion they had for their man.

Barack Obama moves me. Not in that mystified John Kennedy way, not that in heavenly Dr. King way, and not in that unexplainable Bill Clinton way, but we can only hope for so much. I am so cynical, now, and it has been rare and almost nonexistent for me to encounter a politician who makes me feel like he believes what he is saying. That there is so little dissembling and obfuscation. But like Bill Clinton, Obama reminded me that oratory can still shake me. But more important than just speaking words, he means them. I know he does.

Which is why I’ll vote for Barack Obama on February 5. Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and the rest (minus Kucinich and Gravel) and nearly the same on almost every significant piece of policy. They try to shine a magnifying glass on nuance, but it’s nearly invisible. They all want universal health care (in some form). They all want out of Iraq. They all want to realign our foreign policy to a time when not everyone hated us. They all want change, a drastic change at that. It’s time, for me at least, to vote for a candidate I really believe in, in a character I really believe in, and in a conscience I really believe in. I believe Hillary Clinton would be a fine president, an even decision maker, and will keep us safe. I feel very similar about John Edwards. But I will feel proud about voting for Barack Obama, and every day while he’s President I’ll think about what a country we live in, where a skinny kid with a funny name has not just a place in America but a place leading it.


Iowa predictions

The Republicans (Cobra Kai)

1) Mitt Romney
2) Mike Huckabee
3) John McCain
4) Fred Thompson
5) Ron Paul
723) Rudy Giuliani (Yes!)
982) Alan Keyes

Huckabee has had a run and has the Christians on his side, always a plus except when fighting Pontious Pilate and/or lions. Although I hate to echo conventional wisdom (or use the term "conventional wisdom") I think he may have peaked -- Plus Romney has HAMMERED him over the past two weeks. No matter what they say, Iowans seem to take to negative ads. Romney has so much money; I think his GOTV will be very good. However, I could be really wrong because Huckabee really seems to have genuinely committed supporters. I'll go with Romney, who if he wins by more than 5 points should feel good, if not bruised and battered, heading into New Hampshire next week.

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani, after seeing the results from his multimillion dollar house, will choke on a piece of fruitcake.


The Democrats (The Good Guys)

1) Barack Obama
2) John Edwards
3) Hillary Clinton
4) Bill Richardson
5) Joe Biden
6) Chris Dodd
7) Dennis Kucinich

Once again, I feel very odd going with the masses here, but I feel like 2008 will be very different than 2008; there is a general assumption among the Democratic Party that we will win the general election; electability is talked about sparingly. The electorate seems concerned with picking the person that would make the best leader and the best President. That translates to who they feel most strongly about.

Which means bye bye to Clinton. She could win, and I wouldn't be too surprised -- her turnout operations could be better than expected, but with Edwards longstanding relationship with Iowans and Barack's overall likeability, buzz, and momentum, who seems more likely to cause a bunch of people to stand in a hot room for two hours and try to convince Chris Dodd supporters to switch sides?

Also, within the past two days, Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson (El Gobernador Gordo) have both instructed their supporters to switch to Obama in case of not reaching viability. In 2004, when Kucinich did the same for Edwards, he got a bump of around 4 percent. Assuming even a 2% bump and a few percentage points from Richardson's folks, and you've got a cushion that Obama can work with.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

What's in your head?

A quick not before tomorrow's craziness...

It's the day before the Iowa Caucus, and CNN and Foxnews are leading with the following headline stories.

CNN:


Foxnews:



Love the priorities, guys!

I don't have much to say here, except to note the seeming lunacy of the San Francisco zoo arguing that when Tatiana the Tiger went tiger, it might have been the result of an "attack". Hey, San Francisco zoo, I know these guys are idiots, but how about creating some sort of fence that doesn't allow the tiger to escape even if she gets a little ornery? Or, how about closing down the zoo, in fact all zoos, because they're inhumane. But that's a whole other post.

And on the sex thing, besides the hilarity of a headline article on FoxNews including the phrase "rear entry", I think it's time that I admit my love for Dr. Yvonne Fulbright, self ascribed "Sexpert" and "sexologist". I don't know where she got her degree, and I know little about her outside of her cleavage and her need for corrective lenses, but I'm hooked.

End game

In the aftermath of Christmas, the pre New Years drinking, and my overall laziness, I was lapse in updating this space until I watched CNN all day yesterday and was reminded that the Iowa caucuses are in one day. I watched election coverage for about 10 hours yesterday, only interrupted by a half hour run, making dinner, and the two hour season premiere of the Biggest Loser. PS: Jillian is hot again.


4. The Semi-fringe

CNN devoted an entire day alternating between locales like the Giggling Goat (the name of a restaurant in Iowa), house parties where Mitt Romney held a baby like a nuclear bomb, and one on interviews in studio with superstar candidates such as Joe Biden and Bill Richardson. Sigh.

This is a sad time for them -- what kind of expectations are they supposed to set? What happens after Iowa? What's with their hair? It's been over six months and 20 pounds since anyone considered Bill Richardson (El Gobernador Gordo) a viable a candidate, and oh, since about late 1987 since anyone viewed Joe Biden that way, but there they are, talking up their crowd size and their qualifications. Give it up guys, it's either Clinton or Obama, until Clinton has Obama killed and it's Clinton.

3. The True Fringe




With the exception of Dennis Kucinich (D-ifferent galaxy) and Mike Gravel, who might have died at some point during the campaign, I'm not sure, there aren't any real fringe candidates this time around aside from Alan Keyes' quick and frightening appearance at a Republican debate several weeks ago.

That is, of course, except for Ron Paul (The You-Tube Man). Ron Paul is a full fledged libertarian, except for some reason he's a registered Republican. Libertarianism, for the curious, is anarchy with a military, and Ron Paul somehow has generated significant buzz, a bump in the polls, and an insane amount of fundraising, presumably from rich libertarians who can afford the donations because they've been hiding money from the IRS.

Paul is weird, objectively. He has an odd speaking style -- in both cadence and substance. In a Republican debate, he (partially) blamed the US for 9/11, causing Rudy Giuliani to reach Defcon 1 on his 9/11 meter. He wants the US to fully disengage -- to become a true isolationist nation. He wants to get rid of governmental subsidies, eventually social security, etc... He is the very definition of the word unpresidential. And somehow he raised $10 million in a day, which is more scary than entertaining. Scarier, and more entertaining, is that he will probably outpoll Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in Iowa, which just a few months ago, seemed impossible.

2. Rudy Giuliani


There was a time when Rudy Giuliani was not much more than an egomaniacial frozen yogurt loving Seinfeld guest star. He went from there to an egomaniacal mayor, egomaniacal potential Senate candidate, and egomaniacal philandering husband. Along the way his cops had "Shoot black guys first, ask questions whenever i feel like it" policy. Oh, but he did clean up Times Square.

Then on 9/11, the United States, who only knew Giuliani from the aforementioned Seinfeld appearance, his constant attendance at Yankee playoff games, and that whole "Shoot black guys first, ask questions whenever I feel like it" policy, saw a guy walking out of the rubble and found a hero.

He was quite impressive -- on that day and the months following. He went to funerals, spoke at memorial services, bitch slapped a Saudi Prince, then left office and formed an incredibly lucrative firm which, ironically, advised companies and countries on how to avoid and defend themselves from attacks. Then he decided, "Hey, I'm really popular, why don't I run for President?"

He forgot:

1) He like gays

2) He likes abortions (and publicly funding them)

3) He has a lisp (see point number 1)

4) He likes to marry more than one woman (not at the same time -- see Romney, Mitt)

5) His leadership pre 9/11 was... not so much

6) Sometimes he keeps shady friends, and once in a while helps get them nominated for cabinet positions

7) The "Shoot blacks and ask questions whenever I feel like it" policy.


Now, number 7 was probably not going to be a problem for him in the Republican primary, in fact it probably would help. Numbers 5 and 6 were similarly ok because the level of nuance in the Republican nomination consists of "Arab=evil", but the first four seemed like a problem. But, Rudy kept truckin', setting his sights on Florida, where his base of retired New York Jews and crooked vote counters where headquartered.

Rudy banked on high national polling numbers (taken of mainstream Republicans in quasi-normal places) and a general unawareness of his various problems, to get him through the early states and on to Super Tuesday, where he and his ego would ride into victory...

Unfortunately for Rudy, but fortunately for the blacks who inhabit the city of Washington, DC, he hit a few snags. Once people got to know him, they liked him a lot less. And it wasn't just the lisp -- turns out Rudy is kind of an asshole. Who knew? And when there's an open slot for President, a lot of people decide to run. And some of them happen to be actual Republicans! Again, who knew?

So, it's over for Rudy, highlighted by his abysmal appearance on Meet the Press a few weeks back, and the realization by everyone in the media that he might get 5th or 6th in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Awesome. I don't have any commentary here -- I just love this. Ron Paul could win the nomination, abolish the Department of Education and come to my house to collect prompt payment on my college loans and I would still be happier than if Rudy Giuliani was elected President of the United States.


Stay tuned tomorrow for the number one thing I love about primary season, as well as my Iowa predictions...